Hamas Hit, The Iranian Connection?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8537740.stm

This is interesting stuff that I have been following for the last few weeks. It is very unusual to see something like this get pulled out into the open. I'm interested because I think it shows an intersection of regional and global politics.

Depending on your side you have the Dubai police to blame/praise for shedding light on this stuff. The Dubai police have done a lot of work on this one--just look at the CCTV video they put together of the hit teams (check youtube if you have 30min and watch it since at the very least it is interesting). In fact, it is fascinating to watch this play out. I was actually surprised by the number of people involved and how the various teams switched off duties.

Everyone seems to be pointing the finger at Mossad. Yes, this does fit with their MO. But there is likely much more than meets the eye here.

There are a few strange things: 1. Why didn't they do anything about the cameras? 2. There are now a total of 30 or so suspects, why are there so many to kill 1 guy when Mossad likes smaller crews?

A lot of people are calling these guys and gals amateurs because there is so much CCTV footage of them (let's also not forget Mossad has screwed up and gotten caught before so despite their reputation they don't always get their man). But even to someone without any background in this stuff, like me, it's clear from the footage that these guys aren't amateurs. They go about things, prepare, make the hit, and get a large number of people out of a foreign country on faked passports all while hiding in plain sight. That's good.

I think these guys wanted to be seen--unless I'm completely off base (a distinct possibility) they had to know about the cameras, yet did nothing about them. I think they wanted to send a message and make sure people saw. Or they may have believed that messing with the cameras would leave an even more clear trail to them and so they gambled that the Dubai cops wouldn't be able to piece things together.

That would explain the first strange thing.

The article I link above posits that there is a potential that Dubai was a Mossad station, and that station has now been uncovered. Hence, the number of people. This is a distinct possibility. But what deserves more attention is why there would be a station there. To me the answer is Iran.

Just this week Israel unveiled a new UAV that can fly to Iran and their military continues to view Iran with great alarm. Dubai--a country not overly hostile to Israel and close to Iran--would provide a great place for a station. If the focus was indeed on Iran, then you can bet the US and Britain had knowledge of the station and potentially its activities. This could explain the reason so many people were involved--not all were Mossad. It would make sense that a Hamas military operative in Dubai would have contact with Iran for weapons or other materials. Just being Hamas opens him to the Israelis but the second part would bring him to the attention of Western intel agencies.

So the large number of people could be from various agencies. Their goal was potentially to send a message to Hamas and Iran (by killing a go-between) that they are being watched and they are vulnerable.

That would explain the second strange thing.

The one thing that I have been wondering though is how much did Dubai know? Dubai doesn't like Iran (too much that is) and many Gulf states are nervous about Iranian nukes. So I wonder if there is a possibility that Dubai invited Israel to set up a covert station to focus on Iran. During this course of events Mossad finds the Iran-Hamas contact is in town and put a hit on him. That prior knowledge could explain how quickly Dubai pieced things together. Or if you really want to go another route, you can even wonder if Dubai knew in advance hence their quick and thorough investigation.

My view: Mossad all the way on this with Western support. Mossad likely had a center for operations in Dubai to focus on anti-Iran operations that was supported by other intel agencies. Realizing this was in their midst Dubai has been working over time to shut them down so they don't appear like they are stooges to the Israelis. Mossad is happy to send such a loud message and Israel figures it can patch things up over fake passports over time.