Post-Election Thoughts I

Three days later and I am still happy. This is a great day for the US. Obama will have a chance to dance with history as he confronts our country's problems. After the downer of 2004, I was jacked to see Ohio flipped then even more excited when the thing was called. For the past few days I have been readign Newsweek.com for the absolute BEST coverage of the election.

There is a world honeymoon now, but the good times can only last so long. Let's face it, Obama walked through a fart cloud this election and his reward is a huge pile of shit. Domestically, the Democrats will have the major challenge of running the show (which is exponentially more difficult than just being in opposition to Bush). This should also provide the Republicans a chance to take the easier position of just opposing Obama (easier to do than leading).

What I will look to see is how the Republicans try to remake themselves in order to stay viable (pandering to the minority of Americans who are small town whites is not a strategy for success—the “real America” and small town nostalgia is big load of bs in a country that is vast majority urban and suburban).

Another question for Republicans is have they lost the youth vote (about 60%) to Obama for good? Even if young people don’t turn out as much in future elections, this coupled with a growing minority population is not good for Republicans.

In this way, McCain was almost doomed from the start. He his real chance was 8 years ago, that was the time for his candidacy, this is the time for Obama. Even if McCain had not shifted to the right over the past 4 years he still likely would have lost. His was the party of incumbency and the creator of problems. I remember Tim Russert, before his death, stating all the polls showing Americans thought Washington was broken and needed to be fixed. In that context, being from the party that has controlled Washington for much of the last decade is not a good thing. As Thomas Friedman stated, to not kick them out of power would be a stamp of approval for the gross incompetence of the last 10 years.

Finally, let’s all say it together: Reagan and Kennedy are officially dead. Both men came along at important times and their legacies left deep and lasting impressions on their parties. But, let’s face it, they had solutions for their age and their problems (of course some of their ideologies will continue to be applicable) but those eras are long gone. Yet, Democrats rush to claim the Kennedy mantle and Republicans fall over themselves to claim Reagan’s mantle. With Obama and the rise of economic challenges the Kennedy mantle has fallen and we hopefully have someone who understands the economic challenges of today are not the ones of years past (in this sense it is more of a comment on FDR and the response to the Great Depression).

For the Republicans, this is more profound. Reagan is gone. His was a philosophy of low taxes, a goal of small government, and cutting spending (see McCain response to economic crisis-cut earmarks to restore credit markets). Like it or not, big government is here to stay--the challenge is to make it work well and promote the conditions for economic growth. We may well have to cut spending but it will be against our will since we went wild with spending we could not pay for, or that college grads will have to pay for down the line—national debt, Social Security (see a few posts below), Medicare, etc. And despite what both candidates say, if we want a real solution to these problems we will need to raise taxes. The real question is by how much will they have to go up to stay solvent.