Pre-Election Thoughts: What the Election Means for the Future

Today I was thinking about what this election will mean years down the road. Being out of the country I haven’t gotten caught up in all the action too much (I volunteered for Kerry and was all about 2004). I guess that is my way of saying maybe I am thinking more long term or taking a wider view here.

I am going to try and stay away from what political changes this election will bring in this post, that is pure speculation at this point. I am going to try and comment on some things I am more certain about.

This election will change the way future elections are run. The ground organization Obama has run (micro-targeting, tight control over field offices, and a huge Internet machine) will be copied and improved for years to come. This is the start of something that will continue to expand as new possibilities are opened by the Internet. To give credit where credit is due, some of this was also pioneered by Karl Rove.

Of course, all of this is possible because of the money in Obama’s bank. This is the other big change, to do all of this groundwork takes lots of money. The best way for a candidate to raise that money is to forego public financing, like Obama. We are seeing the death of the public finance system. This is at once good and bad. The internet gives candidates without money or name recognition (Ron Paul) a means to even the score. Yet, for established incumbents and candidates they have a model for how to raise money to crush their challengers. I think we will see politics become more skewed toward those who have money or can raise a lot of it fast (which does open the door for corruption and will increasingly advantage incumbents).

There was an article in Newsweek that mentioned that now with the 24 hour news cycle and all the Internet stuff the candidates don’t take chances and instead repeat their talking points over and over to avoid any gaffs. This is not good news as it removes content from politics and leaves empty slogans behind. At the same time, the internet makes it possible to research candidates and find all of their positions and judge the validity of their claims.

After the election, I will speculate more about the political future of the country.