Ok, so I think that my musings on US politics are a little boring. Instead, let’s take a journey through the last week or two. I am going to break this into two parts: the fun stuff (i.e. the weekends) and the not so fun stuff—working.
Part 1
So last weekend, I took it easy I slept a ton went out and watched two movies. The new Bond movie was pretty good until the end. I also saw “Tropic Thunder” it was pretty good even if a lot of the jokes were lost in translation on the Taiwanese people around me.
This weekend I went out on Friday to my favorite all you can drink bar for a good ol’ time. I always go there alone since I seem to bump into interesting people and manage to drink heavily in the process. I always end up with phone numbers from tons of random people but they never call me and I never call them so I figure it’s all fair. When I was there I started talking to this faux-gangster and his buddy. They were pretty cool dudes. Then one of the girls (Xiao Yang) he was there with started talking to me, and as a matter of fact was pretty into me, she started trying to hold my hand and told me she really like foreigners, yada yada. After a little bit grabbed a seat at a nearby booth for a minute and a dude there asks me about my girlfriend. I tell him nope, not a girlfriend. Soon I come to find out ol' Xiao Yang is there with her boyfriend who apparently had a huge argument with her—ok not good news.
At 4AM this the place closes, I go outside to wait for a cab and I end up bumping into the faux-gangster, his buddy, and Xiao Yang again. They suggest we get some beers from 7-11. Hell yeah. So I go outside with them to eat my chips, drink some tea, and drink some beer. Out front, I strike up a conversation with some Taiwanese aboriginals who happened to be there with beers too. Of course, this night ended with a high nore when el faux-gangster got pissed at something small some other dude says then taking off his shirt and getting ready to fight—only to be restrained by Xiao Yang. I sat back and watched this spectacle for a few minutes then bowed out and took a taxi home.
I tried to call my friend James on Skype for an international drunk dial (shout out to Schenkel for drunk dialing me on Skype when I was at work) when I made it home. Unfortunately, the combination of my internet being down, me being very drunk, and me wanting to go to bed foiled those plans.
I slept REALLY late on Saturday but did get up and go to a cool hookah bar; I’ll definitely go back there at some point.
Well Sunday I get a call from one of the random people that gave me their number, another faux-gangster named J’ro. I meet him for coffee at Starbucks. I had minimal recollection of meeting him outside the bar. Come to find out he is an unemployed, former factory worker and rapper, has “ghetto superstar” tattooed on his arm, and has a huge fetish for Latina women. Normally, I would cut this kind of person off immediately but he can apparently get me into one of the best clubs in the city for free so I’ll be hanging out with him once more.
After that, I went down to see the “wild strawberry” student protest. It was there that three 18 yr old college students stopped me and interviewed me for a school assignment. They were supposed to speak English but since my Chinese was better than their English we mostly spoke Chinese. Then they invited me to a night-market so I went with them and had a pretty good dinner.
Part 2
At work, things have been rough these past few weeks. The plus side was that I got a bonus that is equal to about $90 for my work, nice to get a little recognition. There have been three main pains in the ass. First, I have had to deal with a camera system that cannot meet the specs of a customer and try to figure out how to deal with that. But we have a tight production schedule and don’t have enough time to test it.
Second, my boss did his usual deal: hey there is this new order from China, you have no experience with it so how about you get some experience and take it on as the project manager here in Taiwan…um sure? The problem is that the bastard customer can’t seem to decide on what kind of damn artwork they want. So that means every day this week there was an artwork change that had to be made urgently and could not wait only to have a new change come the next day that also could not wait. My job was to talk with the China office and get the customer demands, relay them to the design department, check the new artwork, send the artwork, and then get new changes to repeat the cycle.
But he most stressful was the deal from Thailand this week. They held off on telling us when we needed to give them a delivery schedule for our order (until they worked out if we were to ship by sea or air freight). Then this Wednesday night they called saying they needed the schedule immediately for all air freight. This was not too hard and I was able to talk with 2 coworkers for a rough schedule that we could finalize in the morning. Then I got a call from my boss we got an additional Thailand order of 1.7 million to bring the total to 5.5 million. By this time it was after 6 and most people were gone so we told Thailand to wait until the morning for us to meet and discuss it.
Then we set things out in the morning and I call them, well it turns out we cannot have anything arrive after Dec. 25, so we have to alter our schedule once more. Ok, now it's all set. Then they send me an email that they now want us to send 4 million to them by sea freight. So we have another meeting to completely revamp the schedule due to different lead and shipping times. I send them that. I get a reply that they cannot accept sea freight after Wednesdays, which would have been nice to know before. Of course, by this time it’s getting late so we revise again, discuss and I send. When I it send I put the date like this "Dec 7th (12-7)." I get a confused response wanting to know what (12-7) means. I sort that out. The next morning I get another email saying they cannot accept our final delivery on the 25th. So we change everything once more, and this time they agree.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Post-Election Thoughts I
Three days later and I am still happy. This is a great day for the US. Obama will have a chance to dance with history as he confronts our country's problems. After the downer of 2004, I was jacked to see Ohio flipped then even more excited when the thing was called. For the past few days I have been readign Newsweek.com for the absolute BEST coverage of the election.
There is a world honeymoon now, but the good times can only last so long. Let's face it, Obama walked through a fart cloud this election and his reward is a huge pile of shit. Domestically, the Democrats will have the major challenge of running the show (which is exponentially more difficult than just being in opposition to Bush). This should also provide the Republicans a chance to take the easier position of just opposing Obama (easier to do than leading).
What I will look to see is how the Republicans try to remake themselves in order to stay viable (pandering to the minority of Americans who are small town whites is not a strategy for success—the “real America” and small town nostalgia is big load of bs in a country that is vast majority urban and suburban).
Another question for Republicans is have they lost the youth vote (about 60%) to Obama for good? Even if young people don’t turn out as much in future elections, this coupled with a growing minority population is not good for Republicans.
In this way, McCain was almost doomed from the start. He his real chance was 8 years ago, that was the time for his candidacy, this is the time for Obama. Even if McCain had not shifted to the right over the past 4 years he still likely would have lost. His was the party of incumbency and the creator of problems. I remember Tim Russert, before his death, stating all the polls showing Americans thought Washington was broken and needed to be fixed. In that context, being from the party that has controlled Washington for much of the last decade is not a good thing. As Thomas Friedman stated, to not kick them out of power would be a stamp of approval for the gross incompetence of the last 10 years.
Finally, let’s all say it together: Reagan and Kennedy are officially dead. Both men came along at important times and their legacies left deep and lasting impressions on their parties. But, let’s face it, they had solutions for their age and their problems (of course some of their ideologies will continue to be applicable) but those eras are long gone. Yet, Democrats rush to claim the Kennedy mantle and Republicans fall over themselves to claim Reagan’s mantle. With Obama and the rise of economic challenges the Kennedy mantle has fallen and we hopefully have someone who understands the economic challenges of today are not the ones of years past (in this sense it is more of a comment on FDR and the response to the Great Depression).
For the Republicans, this is more profound. Reagan is gone. His was a philosophy of low taxes, a goal of small government, and cutting spending (see McCain response to economic crisis-cut earmarks to restore credit markets). Like it or not, big government is here to stay--the challenge is to make it work well and promote the conditions for economic growth. We may well have to cut spending but it will be against our will since we went wild with spending we could not pay for, or that college grads will have to pay for down the line—national debt, Social Security (see a few posts below), Medicare, etc. And despite what both candidates say, if we want a real solution to these problems we will need to raise taxes. The real question is by how much will they have to go up to stay solvent.
There is a world honeymoon now, but the good times can only last so long. Let's face it, Obama walked through a fart cloud this election and his reward is a huge pile of shit. Domestically, the Democrats will have the major challenge of running the show (which is exponentially more difficult than just being in opposition to Bush). This should also provide the Republicans a chance to take the easier position of just opposing Obama (easier to do than leading).
What I will look to see is how the Republicans try to remake themselves in order to stay viable (pandering to the minority of Americans who are small town whites is not a strategy for success—the “real America” and small town nostalgia is big load of bs in a country that is vast majority urban and suburban).
Another question for Republicans is have they lost the youth vote (about 60%) to Obama for good? Even if young people don’t turn out as much in future elections, this coupled with a growing minority population is not good for Republicans.
In this way, McCain was almost doomed from the start. He his real chance was 8 years ago, that was the time for his candidacy, this is the time for Obama. Even if McCain had not shifted to the right over the past 4 years he still likely would have lost. His was the party of incumbency and the creator of problems. I remember Tim Russert, before his death, stating all the polls showing Americans thought Washington was broken and needed to be fixed. In that context, being from the party that has controlled Washington for much of the last decade is not a good thing. As Thomas Friedman stated, to not kick them out of power would be a stamp of approval for the gross incompetence of the last 10 years.
Finally, let’s all say it together: Reagan and Kennedy are officially dead. Both men came along at important times and their legacies left deep and lasting impressions on their parties. But, let’s face it, they had solutions for their age and their problems (of course some of their ideologies will continue to be applicable) but those eras are long gone. Yet, Democrats rush to claim the Kennedy mantle and Republicans fall over themselves to claim Reagan’s mantle. With Obama and the rise of economic challenges the Kennedy mantle has fallen and we hopefully have someone who understands the economic challenges of today are not the ones of years past (in this sense it is more of a comment on FDR and the response to the Great Depression).
For the Republicans, this is more profound. Reagan is gone. His was a philosophy of low taxes, a goal of small government, and cutting spending (see McCain response to economic crisis-cut earmarks to restore credit markets). Like it or not, big government is here to stay--the challenge is to make it work well and promote the conditions for economic growth. We may well have to cut spending but it will be against our will since we went wild with spending we could not pay for, or that college grads will have to pay for down the line—national debt, Social Security (see a few posts below), Medicare, etc. And despite what both candidates say, if we want a real solution to these problems we will need to raise taxes. The real question is by how much will they have to go up to stay solvent.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
The Winner
A screenshot from my computer, if Fox actually says it then you know it's over for the Republicans.Two Shout Outs
John DiTillo, if you are somehow reading this from Haiti, I love the emails dude. Stay safe there and enjoy the rice and beans.
My old high school men's (and women's) cross country team won the state title in Oregon. The state title team I ran on still had a better 1-7, this I will always maintain.
My old high school men's (and women's) cross country team won the state title in Oregon. The state title team I ran on still had a better 1-7, this I will always maintain.
Pre-Election Thoughts: What the Election Means for the Future
Today I was thinking about what this election will mean years down the road. Being out of the country I haven’t gotten caught up in all the action too much (I volunteered for Kerry and was all about 2004). I guess that is my way of saying maybe I am thinking more long term or taking a wider view here.
I am going to try and stay away from what political changes this election will bring in this post, that is pure speculation at this point. I am going to try and comment on some things I am more certain about.
This election will change the way future elections are run. The ground organization Obama has run (micro-targeting, tight control over field offices, and a huge Internet machine) will be copied and improved for years to come. This is the start of something that will continue to expand as new possibilities are opened by the Internet. To give credit where credit is due, some of this was also pioneered by Karl Rove.
Of course, all of this is possible because of the money in Obama’s bank. This is the other big change, to do all of this groundwork takes lots of money. The best way for a candidate to raise that money is to forego public financing, like Obama. We are seeing the death of the public finance system. This is at once good and bad. The internet gives candidates without money or name recognition (Ron Paul) a means to even the score. Yet, for established incumbents and candidates they have a model for how to raise money to crush their challengers. I think we will see politics become more skewed toward those who have money or can raise a lot of it fast (which does open the door for corruption and will increasingly advantage incumbents).
There was an article in Newsweek that mentioned that now with the 24 hour news cycle and all the Internet stuff the candidates don’t take chances and instead repeat their talking points over and over to avoid any gaffs. This is not good news as it removes content from politics and leaves empty slogans behind. At the same time, the internet makes it possible to research candidates and find all of their positions and judge the validity of their claims.
After the election, I will speculate more about the political future of the country.
I am going to try and stay away from what political changes this election will bring in this post, that is pure speculation at this point. I am going to try and comment on some things I am more certain about.
This election will change the way future elections are run. The ground organization Obama has run (micro-targeting, tight control over field offices, and a huge Internet machine) will be copied and improved for years to come. This is the start of something that will continue to expand as new possibilities are opened by the Internet. To give credit where credit is due, some of this was also pioneered by Karl Rove.
Of course, all of this is possible because of the money in Obama’s bank. This is the other big change, to do all of this groundwork takes lots of money. The best way for a candidate to raise that money is to forego public financing, like Obama. We are seeing the death of the public finance system. This is at once good and bad. The internet gives candidates without money or name recognition (Ron Paul) a means to even the score. Yet, for established incumbents and candidates they have a model for how to raise money to crush their challengers. I think we will see politics become more skewed toward those who have money or can raise a lot of it fast (which does open the door for corruption and will increasingly advantage incumbents).
There was an article in Newsweek that mentioned that now with the 24 hour news cycle and all the Internet stuff the candidates don’t take chances and instead repeat their talking points over and over to avoid any gaffs. This is not good news as it removes content from politics and leaves empty slogans behind. At the same time, the internet makes it possible to research candidates and find all of their positions and judge the validity of their claims.
After the election, I will speculate more about the political future of the country.
China and the Economic Downturn
China is now starting to feel the global economic downturn. No real shocker in that, it's a globalized world and things like this spread in that kind of world. It is worth keeping an eye on since I have always believed that if the Chinese economy suffers that situation will create the largest potential for political change in China (what kind of change I cannot say).
China has corruption and an opaque system working aganist it. These will obscure the real scope of any problem until they are too late or blow up completely. But their government can act relatively quickly it has shown, but this is a new ballgame as it's economic engine of exports has fallen. The advantages the government can work with are 1. it knows the dangers of a slow growth rate 2. it has huge foreign currency reserves to work with 3. the property market is not about to free-fall nor is consumer spending.
The economic growth in China is important because this is the basis of the government’s claim to legitimacy. The social contract there is essentially: stay out of politics and don’t try to change things and in exchange we will keep the economy growing, which gives you chances to make money and move up. Of course, if the economy begins to falter (and there have been some reports of this http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27527443/) the worry is that the people will be very unhappy since the one promise of the government is now gone. As the article states, the government is now paying workers when the bosses run off in the wake of a failed company. This is quite new, in the past it was tough luck for the workers as this was a semi-regular occurrence in many areas of China that the owners screwed the workers out of a salary and ran off with the money themselves.
To be sure, I am NOT saying this will bring down the government or even create noticeable change in the government. What this has the potential to do is create a spark that feeds doubts about the competence of the technocrats in the government and could lead to demands for more openness. I still firmly believe that political change in China will take place at a slow pace and in measured steps. But economic problems have the potential to push the pace of change at a faster rate. Food for thought.
China has corruption and an opaque system working aganist it. These will obscure the real scope of any problem until they are too late or blow up completely. But their government can act relatively quickly it has shown, but this is a new ballgame as it's economic engine of exports has fallen. The advantages the government can work with are 1. it knows the dangers of a slow growth rate 2. it has huge foreign currency reserves to work with 3. the property market is not about to free-fall nor is consumer spending.
The economic growth in China is important because this is the basis of the government’s claim to legitimacy. The social contract there is essentially: stay out of politics and don’t try to change things and in exchange we will keep the economy growing, which gives you chances to make money and move up. Of course, if the economy begins to falter (and there have been some reports of this http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27527443/) the worry is that the people will be very unhappy since the one promise of the government is now gone. As the article states, the government is now paying workers when the bosses run off in the wake of a failed company. This is quite new, in the past it was tough luck for the workers as this was a semi-regular occurrence in many areas of China that the owners screwed the workers out of a salary and ran off with the money themselves.
To be sure, I am NOT saying this will bring down the government or even create noticeable change in the government. What this has the potential to do is create a spark that feeds doubts about the competence of the technocrats in the government and could lead to demands for more openness. I still firmly believe that political change in China will take place at a slow pace and in measured steps. But economic problems have the potential to push the pace of change at a faster rate. Food for thought.
Cultural Experience
I had a nice cultural experience last week when I had a 2 million card order going to Thailand. It was very stressful, frustrating, but a learning experience nevertheless
The customer sent me an order for the cards, but it wrong price so I emailed them to give me the correct price for the sea freighted shipment with a new order form. They gave me a new one but it was still wrong so I tell them to revise again. They told me they were pretty sure they had the right one. Okay, so this is a problem and now I have to sort this out. I check with my coworker who sent the quote and get the email from him since this is the way to find proof of this thing and come to a conclusion (this is what we Westerners do).
I then email the quote to all the people it concerned to show the correct price, standard fare I thought. Well the customer got mad since apparently I am not supposed to send price information to multiple people, fair enough (my bad here since this made them lose face).
Then it got real interesting with cultural stuff. I guess I am not supposed to “prove” the price to them (again they lose face by being told they are wrong). Even though they had previously agreed to the price and saw that we had proof of that, in Thailand this thing is still something that can be negotiated.
Well they refuse to agree to our price and say they want their boss and my boss to talk it over the next day when they meet at night. But they also want the shipment on time and it has to leave in the early morning, and it cannot leave without an invoice showing the price. This means I have to sort this thing out now! Well I end up calling my boss and we just give the customer the damn price and then let them negotiate the next day. Looking back it doesn't sound too stressful but the back and forth with my boss, coworkers, and the customer was a colossal pain in the ass.
Oh well, live and learn. I'll chalk this one up to experience.
The customer sent me an order for the cards, but it wrong price so I emailed them to give me the correct price for the sea freighted shipment with a new order form. They gave me a new one but it was still wrong so I tell them to revise again. They told me they were pretty sure they had the right one. Okay, so this is a problem and now I have to sort this out. I check with my coworker who sent the quote and get the email from him since this is the way to find proof of this thing and come to a conclusion (this is what we Westerners do).
I then email the quote to all the people it concerned to show the correct price, standard fare I thought. Well the customer got mad since apparently I am not supposed to send price information to multiple people, fair enough (my bad here since this made them lose face).
Then it got real interesting with cultural stuff. I guess I am not supposed to “prove” the price to them (again they lose face by being told they are wrong). Even though they had previously agreed to the price and saw that we had proof of that, in Thailand this thing is still something that can be negotiated.
Well they refuse to agree to our price and say they want their boss and my boss to talk it over the next day when they meet at night. But they also want the shipment on time and it has to leave in the early morning, and it cannot leave without an invoice showing the price. This means I have to sort this thing out now! Well I end up calling my boss and we just give the customer the damn price and then let them negotiate the next day. Looking back it doesn't sound too stressful but the back and forth with my boss, coworkers, and the customer was a colossal pain in the ass.
Oh well, live and learn. I'll chalk this one up to experience.
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